On February 6, 2023, the Premier League dropped a nuclear bomb on English football. Manchester City, winners of five Premier League titles in six years, reigning champions, and the most dominant force in English football history, were charged with 115 breaches of financial regulations spanning nine years.
The hearing ran from September 16 to December 6, 2024. Twelve weeks of legal arguments. Lord David Pannick KC commanding ÂŁ10,000 per hour to defend City. Adam Lewis KC leading the Premier League’s prosecution. Both sides bound by non-disclosure agreements. No media access. No public statements.
The verdict is still pending as of December 2025.
But here’s what we know: If Manchester City are found guilty, football finance experts project a 60-100 point deduction that would guarantee relegation. Not just from the Premier League. Potentially to League One or below. Liverpool, Manchester United, Arsenal, and Spurs are preparing compensation claims potentially worth hundreds of millions of pounds for titles, prize money, and Champions League qualification they lost to City during the alleged fraud period.
The Numbers Behind Football’s Biggest Scandal:
- Charges: 115 alleged breaches (actually 130 after counting error)
- Time Period: 2009-2018 for financial breaches, 2018-2023 for non-cooperation
- Premier League Titles Won During Period: 3 (2011-12, 2013-14, 2017-18)
- Total Titles Since Sheikh Mansour Takeover: 8 (including four consecutive)
- Projected Points Deduction If Guilty: 60-100 points
- Everton’s Precedent: 10 points for ÂŁ19.5 million overspend in one season
- Nottingham Forest Precedent: 4 points for PSR breaches
- Potential Relegation: Guaranteed if 60+ points deducted
- Compensation Claims: Hundreds of millions from rival clubs
This isn’t about football anymore. It’s about whether the world’s richest sports league can enforce rules when a nation-state decides to bankroll unlimited spending. It’s about whether competitive integrity matters when oil money says it doesn’t.
Manchester City deny all charges. Their lawyers insist they have “irrefutable evidence” of innocence. They’ve hired the most expensive legal counsel in British sports history.
But the Premier League doesn’t charge clubs with 115 violations unless the evidence is overwhelming.
What Are Manchester City Actually Charged With?
The 130 Charges Breakdown
The Premier League initially announced 115 charges in February 2023. Reports later corrected this to 130 charges after a counting error in the league’s press release. The charges break down into five categories, each representing fundamental violations of football’s financial rulebook.
Category 1: Providing False Financial Information (54 Charges)
Manchester City allegedly provided inaccurate financial information to the Premier League for nine consecutive seasons from 2009-10 through 2017-18. This isn’t minor accounting mistakes. The Premier League alleges City deliberately falsified:
- Sponsorship Revenue: Overstating money from Etihad Airways and other Abu Dhabi-linked companies
- Commercial Income: Disguising owner investment as legitimate sponsorship deals
- Wage Payments: Hiding true compensation to players and managers through offshore accounts
The Roberto Mancini Example:
The charges explicitly reference Roberto Mancini, City’s manager from 2009-2013 who won their first Premier League title in 2011-12.
The Alleged Scheme:
- Official Mancini Salary: Approximately ÂŁ3 million per year at Manchester City
- Secret Al Jazira Consulting Contract: Reported ÂŁ1.75 million annually for “advisory services”
- Total Compensation: ÂŁ4.75 million annually (hidden from Premier League)
This arrangement allegedly allowed City to report lower manager wages to the Premier League while paying Mancini his full salary, circumventing Financial Fair Play (FFP) rules limiting wage spending.
Category 2: Failing to Provide Accurate Player and Manager Compensation Details (14 Charges)
From 2009-10 through 2017-18, City allegedly failed to disclose complete details of player and manager remuneration, including:
- Image Rights Payments: Separate payments to players’ image rights companies
- Agent Fees: Payments to intermediaries not fully disclosed
- Bonuses and Incentives: Performance-related payments structured to avoid FFP calculations
- Third-Party Agreements: Contracts with players involving external parties
The significance: FFP regulations limit how much clubs can spend on wages relative to revenue. By hiding true compensation, City allegedly spent far more than rules allowed.
Category 3: Breaching Premier League Profitability and Sustainability Rules (7 Charges)
Between 2015-16 and 2017-18, City allegedly violated the Premier League’s Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR). These regulations limit clubs to ÂŁ105 million in losses over three years.
Everton and Nottingham Forest Precedents:
- Everton 2023-24: Deducted 10 points (reduced to 6 on appeal) for exceeding PSR by ÂŁ19.5 million over three years
- Nottingham Forest 2023-24: Deducted 4 points for exceeding PSR by ÂŁ34.5 million
If City exceeded PSR limits by significantly more while disguising the true extent through false accounting, the punishment would logically be exponentially more severe.
Category 4: Failing to Comply with UEFA Financial Fair Play (5 Charges)
Between 2013-14 and 2017-18, City allegedly violated UEFA’s FFP regulations. This directly connects to UEFA’s 2020 ruling that found City guilty of “serious breaches” and banned them from Champions League for two years.
The CAS Appeal:
The Court of Arbitration for Sport overturned UEFA’s ban in July 2020, but not because City proved innocence. CAS ruled that UEFA’s charges were “time-barred” under their five-year statute of limitations.
Crucially: The Premier League has no such time limit.
Category 5: Failing to Cooperate with Premier League Investigations (35 Charges)
From December 2018 through February 2023, City allegedly obstructed Premier League investigations by:
- Refusing to Provide Documents: Declining to share financial records, emails, and contracts
- Delaying Responses: Taking months or years to respond to information requests
- Incomplete Disclosure: Providing partial information while withholding relevant materials
- Legal Obstruction: Using procedural challenges to slow the investigation
The Premier League investigation began in December 2018. The league charged City in February 2023, more than four years later, specifically noting City’s lack of cooperation extended the process.
The Evidence: Football Leaks and Der Spiegel’s Explosive Revelations
The Leaked Emails That Started Everything
The charges stem primarily from leaked internal documents published by German magazine Der Spiegel in November 2018. The Football Leaks website provided Der Spiegel with millions of documents from football clubs, agents, and players.
Key Leaked Emails (Der Spiegel Claims):
Email 1: Etihad Sponsorship Disguised as Owner Investment
Der Spiegel published emails allegedly showing City’s executives discussing a ÂŁ59.5 million Etihad sponsorship where only ÂŁ8 million came from Etihad. The remaining ÂŁ51.5 million allegedly came from Abu Dhabi United Group (ADUG), City’s owners, disguised as Etihad money.
Why This Matters: FFP rules prohibit owners from injecting unlimited cash into clubs. Legitimate sponsorships from external companies are allowed. By allegedly disguising owner investment as Etihad sponsorship, City could spend more while appearing FFP compliant.
Email 2: Creating Alternative Sponsorship Structures
Another leaked email allegedly shows Simon Pearce, a senior Abu Dhabi government official and Manchester City board member, discussing how to structure sponsorship deals to avoid FFP scrutiny.
Email 3: Roberto Mancini’s Secret Contract
Emails allegedly confirm Mancini’s dual contract arrangement with Manchester City and Al Jazira FC, with City executives discussing the need to keep Mancini’s Al Jazira consultancy “separate” from his City contract.
Manchester City’s Response
City immediately challenged the leaked documents’ authenticity and legality. In their February 2023 statement, City said they welcome “the review of this matter by an independent commission, to impartially consider the comprehensive body of irrefutable evidence that exists in support of its position.”
But here’s the problem: UEFA used these same emails to find City guilty and ban them from Champions League. CAS didn’t overturn UEFA’s ruling because the evidence was false. CAS overturned it because the violations were “time-barred.”
The Premier League has no time limit.
What Punishment Could Manchester City Face?
Five Possible Outcomes:
If found guilty, the independent commission has “unlimited powers” to punish Manchester City. The Premier League rulebook explicitly states the commission can impose “any sanction it sees fit.”
1. Financial Fine
The mildest punishment would be a substantial fine, potentially hundreds of millions of pounds. UEFA fined City ÂŁ49 million in 2014 for earlier FFP breaches.
Why This Won’t Happen: A fine is meaningless to Manchester City. The club generated ÂŁ712.8 million in revenue (2022-23) and has access to Sheikh Mansour’s estimated ÂŁ20+ billion personal wealth.
2. Points Deduction
The most likely punishment is a massive points deduction, potentially applied across multiple seasons. Football finance expert Kieran Maguire told BBC Radio 5 Live:
“If Everton were initially given a 10 points deduction for going around about ÂŁ10-12 million over the limits in one particular season, we’ll probably be looking at somewhere in the region of 60 to 100 points, which would effectively guarantee relegation.”
The Math on Point Deductions:
- Everton: 10 points originally for ÂŁ19.5 million overspend in one season
- Nottingham Forest: 4 points for ÂŁ34.5 million overspend
- City: Accused of systematic fraud across nine seasons involving potentially hundreds of millions
3. Relegation to Championship or Below
If the commission imposes a 60-100 point deduction in a single season, relegation is mathematically guaranteed. But there’s a complication: the independent commission has no jurisdiction over the English Football League (EFL).
The Telegraph reported the commission can expel City from the Premier League, but City would then need to apply for EFL membership. The EFL would be under no legal obligation to accept them.
4. Title Stripping
The Premier League has never stripped a club of a title. But City won three league championships during the alleged fraud period (2011-12, 2013-14, 2017-18).
Arguments For Stripping Titles:
- Tainted Success: Titles won through financial fraud are illegitimate
- Deterrent Effect: Future clubs must know cheating voids achievements
- Justice for Rivals: Manchester United, Liverpool were robbed of titles
Arguments Against:
- No Precedent: Premier League has never done this
- Legal Complications: Who gets awarded the titles?
5. Transfer Ban
The commission could prohibit City from registering new players for multiple transfer windows, though this seems less likely for decade-old violations.
The Economic Domino Effect: Billions at Stake
Compensation Claims From Rival Clubs
Liverpool, Manchester United, Arsenal, Tottenham, and others are preparing legal claims against Manchester City for financial losses incurred during the alleged fraud period.
Potential Compensation Categories:
Prize Money Lost:
- Liverpool finished 2nd to City by one point in 2018-19 (potential ÂŁ2.5M claim)
- Manchester United 2nd to City by 11 points in 2017-18 (potential ÂŁ27.5M claim)
Champions League Revenue Lost:
- Qualifying for Champions League: ÂŁ40-60 million per season minimum
- Arsenal missed Champions League 2016-17 by one point (ÂŁ50M+ lost)
Commercial Revenue Lost:
- Clubs that would have won titles attract better sponsors
- Liverpool’s commercial deals worth less without 2013-14 title (lost to City by 2 points)
Total Compensation Estimates:
Conservative estimates suggest clubs could claim ÂŁ300-500 million combined. Aggressive calculations reach ÂŁ1+ billion when accounting for nine years of systematically depressed competition.
Broadcast Revenue Collapse Risk
The Premier League’s current broadcast deals are worth ÂŁ13.2 billion total (ÂŁ3.3 billion annually).
Sky Sports’ Investment in Competitive Integrity:
Sky Sports pays ÂŁ6.4 billion for 215 Premier League matches per season. If City’s four consecutive titles (2020-21 through 2023-24) were achieved through fraud, Sky essentially broadcast rigged competitions for four years.
The Renegotiation Risk:
Broadcasting contracts include “integrity” clauses allowing renegotiation if competition is compromised. Conservative estimate: broadcasters could negotiate 10-20% reductions, costing the Premier League ÂŁ1.3-2.6 billion.
Player Exodus and Asset Devaluation
If City are relegated, their squad would immediately seek transfers.
Current Manchester City Squad Value:
- Erling Haaland: ÂŁ150 million+
- Phil Foden: ÂŁ120 million
- Rodri: ÂŁ100 million
- Total First Team Squad Value: ÂŁ1+ billion
Fire Sale Economics:
If City face relegation, every player would demand immediate transfer. Instead of receiving market value, City would lose ÂŁ300-500 million in immediate asset value while paying massive wages for relegated squad.
Why Manchester City Might Actually Be Guilty
Let’s examine why the Premier League likely has overwhelming evidence, despite City’s denials.
Evidence Point 1: UEFA Already Found City Guilty
UEFA’s 2020 ruling found Manchester City guilty of “serious breaches” of FFP regulations. CAS overturned the ban only because violations were time-barred, not because UEFA’s evidence was wrong.
The Premier League has no time limit. The same evidence that convinced UEFA convinces the Premier League.
Evidence Point 2: Der Spiegel’s Leaked Emails Are Devastating
The published emails show Manchester City executives discussing how to disguise owner investment as sponsorship, plans to create “alternative structures” to avoid FFP, and acknowledgment that Etihad sponsorship money came from ADUG.
City argues emails were “hacked and illegally obtained.” But stolen evidence is still evidence.
Evidence Point 3: City’s Four-Year Obstruction Suggests Guilt
Why would an innocent club refuse to cooperate for four years? The Premier League charged City with 35 separate counts of non-cooperation from December 2018 through February 2023.
Innocent parties cooperate. City fought every step, delayed, filed procedural challenges, and provided incomplete responses. This behavior pattern suggests City knew full cooperation would reveal incriminating evidence.
Evidence Point 4: The Timing of Sheikh Mansour’s Investment
In 2008, Sheikh Mansour bought Manchester City for ÂŁ210 million. The club had finished 9th with a wage bill around ÂŁ80 million.
Manchester City Spending (First Three Years):
- 2008-09: ÂŁ117 million on transfers
- 2009-10: ÂŁ138 million on transfers
- 2010-11: ÂŁ148 million on transfers
- Total: ÂŁ403 million in three years
How did a club with ÂŁ80 million in wages suddenly afford ÂŁ403 million in transfers plus massively increased salaries?
City’s explanation: Rapid commercial growth through Etihad Airways’ ÂŁ400 million, 10-year deal.
Premier League’s allegation: Much of that “commercial growth” was actually Sheikh Mansour injecting money disguised as sponsorship.
The math doesn’t work otherwise. No club generates legitimate commercial revenue that fast without winning major trophies first.
The Nuclear Option: City’s Legal War
What Happens If City Are Found Guilty?
If found guilty, City won’t accept the verdict quietly. The club has already sued the Premier League once in 2024 over Associated Party Transaction rules.
City’s Legal Strategy:
Appeal 1: Challenge the Independent Commission’s Ruling
Both City and the Premier League can appeal the initial verdict within 14 days. City would argue:
- Evidence Was Illegally Obtained: Football Leaks hacked documents
- Emails Were Taken Out of Context: Full record exonerates City
- Commission Was Biased: Premier League appointed commissioners
- Procedural Violations: Flaws in investigation
Appeal 2: Take the Premier League to UK Civil Courts
If City lose the appeal, they cannot go to CAS. But nothing prevents City from suing the Premier League in UK civil courts for breach of contract, defamation, or restraint of trade.
UK courts could issue injunctions blocking the Premier League from enforcing sanctions while litigation proceeds. This could delay punishments for years.
The Financial War
Manchester City has access to Sheikh Mansour’s estimated ÂŁ20+ billion wealth. The Premier League’s legal budget can’t match unlimited Abu Dhabi resources.
City could hire 50+ lawyers, file hundreds of procedural motions, and delay proceedings indefinitely.
The strategy: make punishment so expensive to enforce that the Premier League settles for a token fine.
What This Means for Every Premier League Club
If City Are Found Guilty
Winners:
- Liverpool: Prime beneficiaries. Would have won 2018-19 title if City finished 2nd (lost by 1 point)
- Manchester United: Lost 2011-12 and 2017-18 titles to City
- Arsenal: Lost Champions League qualification and prize money multiple seasons
Losers:
- Manchester City Players: Titles tainted, legacies questioned
- Pep Guardiola: Four consecutive titles potentially stripped
- Premier League: Global credibility damaged, broadcasters demanding renegotiation
If City Are Found Not Guilty
The implications are arguably worse. It would prove that clubs with unlimited wealth can circumvent any rule by hiring expensive lawyers, obstructing investigations, and threatening legal action.
Every Premier League rule becomes meaningless. Newcastle United (Saudi PIF) and Chelsea (Todd Boehly) would immediately ramp up spending far beyond FFP limits, knowing enforcement is impossible.
The Bottom Line: Football’s Integrity on Trial
As of December 2025, the independent commission has been deliberating for over six months. Industry insiders suggest early 2026 for the verdict, potentially March or April.
Three Possible Outcomes:
Outcome 1: Guilty on Majority of Charges, 60-100 Point Deduction
- City are relegated immediately
- Squad fire-sale begins, Guardiola leaves
- Compensation claims filed, years of appeals
- Premier League’s credibility damaged but rules eventually enforced
- Probability: 40%
Outcome 2: Guilty on Some Charges, 20-30 Point Deduction and ÂŁ500 Million Fine
- City face significant but non-fatal punishment
- Finish mid-table but avoid relegation
- Some titles questioned but not stripped
- Probability: 35%
Outcome 3: Not Guilty on Most Charges Due to Insufficient Evidence
- City are cleared or found guilty only on minor charges
- Premier League looks incompetent
- Rules proven unenforceable
- Spending war erupts as regulations become meaningless
- Probability: 25%
The Truth:
The Premier League does not charge clubs with 130 violations unless the evidence is overwhelming. The league spent four years investigating, reviewed millions of documents, and consulted forensic accountants.
The Roberto Mancini contract alone is damning. There’s no legitimate business reason for a football club manager to have a separate consultancy with an Abu Dhabi club also owned by the same person.
The Etihad sponsorship numbers don’t add up. Etihad Airways valued Manchester City sponsorship higher than Manchester United, Real Madrid, or Barcelona. Why? Because Sheikh Mansour owns both City and Etihad, allowing him to inflate the deal.
This isn’t a criminal trial requiring “beyond reasonable doubt.” It’s a regulatory proceeding requiring “comfortable satisfaction.” The evidence doesn’t need to prove guilt to 99% certainty.
And the evidence does exactly that.
The verdict will define whether English football’s competitive integrity can survive when nation-states decide rules don’t apply to them.
