In March 2021, Amazon made the biggest bet in streaming sports history: $1 billion per year for 11 years to become the exclusive home of NFL Thursday Night Football. That’s $11 billion total, making Amazon the first streaming service to exclusively carry a full package of NFL games.
Three seasons in, the numbers tell a complicated story. In 2024, Thursday Night Football averaged 13.2 million viewers on Prime Video, up 11% from 2023 and 38% from Amazon’s inaugural 2022 season. The company’s Q4 2024 advertising revenue hit a record $17.29 billion, boosted in part by NFL sponsorships.
But here’s the catch: Thursday Night Football still loses money. Every single game. And Amazon knows it.
The difference is Amazon doesn’t care about profit from football. They care about what football does for everything else. Here’s why Amazon accepts losing $650-750 million annually on Thursday Night Football while competitors like Fox walked away from the same package.
The $11 Billion Deal That Changed Streaming Sports
Most Expensive Per Game, Cheapest Per Year
Amazon’s Thursday Night Football contract runs from 2023-2033, making them the NFL’s newest broadcast partner and first streaming-exclusive rights holder.
Contract Terms:
- Annual cost: $1 billion
- Total value: $11 billion over 11 years
- Games per season: 15 regular season + 1 preseason + 1 Wild Card playoff (starting 2024)
- Cost per regular season game: ~$67 million
- Start date: September 2022 (accelerated from original 2023 start)
Amazon’s deal makes them the cheapest NFL rights holder on an annual basis but the most expensive per game.
NFL Rights Comparison (Annual Costs):
- ESPN/ABC: $2.7 billion (23 games including Monday Night Football and Super Bowl rotation)
- CBS: $2.1 billion (Sunday AFC games + Super Bowl rotation)
- NBC: $2 billion (Sunday Night Football + Super Bowl rotation)
- Fox: $2+ billion (Sunday NFC games + Super Bowl rotation)
- Amazon: $1 billion (15 Thursday Night games + Wild Card)
While Amazon pays half what ESPN does annually, ESPN gets 23 games including Monday Night Football’s premium matchups and two Super Bowl broadcasts per cycle. Amazon gets Thursday nights, historically the NFL’s weakest timeslot featuring teams on short rest.
Fox Walked Away Saving $400 Million Annually
Fox gladly gave up Thursday Night Football when their contract expired, saving $660 million annually. Morgan Stanley estimated Fox was losing approximately $400 million per year on the package by 2023.
Amazon looked at Fox losing $400 million annually and said “we’ll take that deal.” The question is why.
Year 1: The Reality Check (2022 Season)
Viewership Missed Projections by 25%
Amazon’s inaugural exclusive season revealed the harsh economics of Thursday Night Football.
Viewership Performance:
- Projected viewership: 12-13 million per game
- Actual viewership: 9.58 million average (Nielsen Live+SD)
- Shortfall: 25% below expectations
The 25% viewership miss created immediate problems for Amazon’s advertising commitments. According to Business Insider reporting in January 2023, Amazon had to provide replacement ad inventory across Prime Video and Amazon to compensate advertisers for the lower-than-guaranteed audience delivery.
Advertising Revenue Fell Short
Amazon undercut Fox’s pricing by 25-30% to attract advertisers to the new streaming platform.
2022 Ad Pricing Comparison:
- Amazon TNF 30-second spots: $475,000-$525,000
- Fox final year (2021): $650,000 per 30-second spot
- ESPN Monday Night Football: $900,000+ per spot
With approximately 10 national 30-second spots available per game across 15 games, Amazon’s maximum in-game ad revenue was roughly $71-79 million for the season. Add pre-game and post-game inventory and total ad revenue likely reached $70-100 million.
Season 1 Financial Snapshot:
- Rights cost: $1 billion
- Advertising revenue: $70-100 million (estimated)
- Production costs: $200-300 million (talent, crew, technology, NFL production standards)
- Year 1 loss: $800 million to $1 billion (estimated)
Amazon lost nearly the entire $1 billion rights fee in year one after accounting for minimal ad revenue and massive production costs.
Year 2: Growth But Still Bleeding (2023 Season)
Viewership Surged 24% Year-Over-Year
The 2023 season showed significant improvement as audiences discovered where to find Thursday Night Football.
Viewership Growth:
- Average viewership: 11.86 million (+24% vs 2022)
- Peak performance: Seattle vs Dallas (Nov 30) – 15.3 million viewers, 18 million peak
- Streaming record: Most-watched regular season NFL game ever streamed
Key Demographics:
- Median viewer age: 47 years (7 years younger than linear NFL average of 54)
- Female viewership: 3.86 million (+30% year-over-year)
- Cord-cutters: 4.1 million per game (+55% vs 2022)
- P18-34 audience: +14% year-over-year
Amazon successfully attracted younger demographics than traditional NFL broadcasts, validating the streaming strategy even as overall viewership remained below initial projections.
Black Friday Football Created New Revenue Stream
Amazon created a new tentpole event by broadcasting an exclusive Black Friday game for the first time. The Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets matchup capitalized on America’s biggest shopping day, integrating commerce with content in ways traditional broadcasters couldn’t match.
The Black Friday game allowed Amazon to run shoppable ads where viewers could click to add items to their Amazon cart without leaving the broadcast, creating direct commerce conversion impossible on traditional TV.
Advertising Progress:
- More than 50% of 2023 TNF advertisers were new versus 2022
- Approximately 20% had never advertised on NFL broadcasts before
- Amazon successfully sold to non-traditional NFL categories beyond automotive, insurance, and beer
Estimated 2023 Financials:
- Rights cost: $1 billion
- Advertising revenue: $150-200 million (estimated)
- Production costs: $200-300 million
- Year 2 loss: $700-850 million (estimated)
Year 3: Record Breaking But Still Unprofitable (2024 Season)
13.2 Million Viewers, All-Time Demographic Records
The 2024 season represented Amazon’s most successful year yet, proving the platform’s potential while still failing to turn a direct profit from football.
Historic Viewership Performance:
- Average viewership: 13.2 million (+11% vs 2023, +38% vs 2022)
- Total unique viewers: 103.1 million across TNF, Black Friday, and Wild Card playoff
- Wild Card game: Pittsburgh vs Baltimore – 22.1 million average (24.7 million peak)
The Wild Card playoff game became the most-streamed game in Prime Video history, demonstrating that Amazon’s investment is building sustainable audience habits. Over 103 million unique viewers watched at least one Thursday Night Football game during the 2024 season.
All-Time Demographic Records:
- P18-34: Best performance in TNF’s 19-year history across all carriers since 2006
- P18-49: 5.99 million viewers (all-time high)
- P25-54: Record performance
- Median viewer age: 49 years (8 years younger than NFL TV audience of 55.3)
45% of Prime Video’s Thursday Night Football viewers were in the P18-49 demographic, compared to only 34% of linear NFL viewers. Amazon successfully delivered younger audiences advertisers crave.
Advertising Innovation Drove Revenue Growth
Amazon introduced groundbreaking advertising technology in 2024 that traditional broadcasters cannot replicate.
Audience-Based Creative Targeting: For the first time in NFL history, advertisers could show different 30-second ads to different viewer segments within the same ad slot. An automotive brand could simultaneously run sports car ads to P18-34 males, SUV ads to families with children, and truck ads to rural/outdoor demographics.
Interactive Advertising: Viewers could click on ads to learn more about products, add items to Amazon cart, or access exclusive deals without leaving the broadcast. This created direct commerce attribution impossible on traditional TV.
Pricing Growth:
- In-game 30-second spots: $525,000-$600,000 (estimated)
- Pre/post-game spots: $200,000-$300,000
- Total estimated ad revenue: $250-350 million for season
Estimated 2024 Financials:
- Rights cost: $1 billion
- Advertising revenue: $250-350 million (estimated)
- Production costs: $250-300 million
- Year 3 loss: $650-750 million (estimated)
Even with record viewership and innovative advertising, Amazon still loses $650-750 million annually on Thursday Night Football after three years.
Q4 2024: Thursday Night Football in Context
$17.29 Billion Advertising Revenue Quarter
Amazon announced Q4 2024 financial results in February 2025, providing context for how Thursday Night Football fits into the broader business.
Q4 2024 Performance:
- Total advertising revenue: $17.29 billion (+18% year-over-year)
- Total net sales: $187.8 billion (+10%)
- Net income: $20.0 billion
- Subscription services revenue: $11.51 billion (+10%)
Thursday Night Football contributed to these numbers but represents a tiny fraction of Amazon’s massive advertising and subscription ecosystem. The company’s Q4 ad revenue alone ($17.29B) exceeds its entire 11-year NFL commitment ($11B).
Critically, Amazon noted that TNF viewership growth of 11% made Prime Video “the only NFL broadcast partner to grow year-over-year” in 2024. CBS, Fox, NBC, and ESPN all saw viewership declines, making Thursday Night Football the only growing NFL property.
Why Amazon Accepts Losing $750 Million Annually
Prime Membership Acquisition Value
Amazon doesn’t measure Thursday Night Football success in advertising revenue versus rights costs. They measure it in Prime members acquired and retained.
The math that makes Thursday Night Football worthwhile despite losing $650+ million annually starts with Prime member spending patterns.
Average Annual Spending:
- Prime member: $1,400
- Non-Prime member: $600
- Spending difference: $800 per year
If Thursday Night Football converts just 1.25 million people to Prime annually, that generates $1 billion in additional annual spending ($800 Ă— 1.25M). Amazon captures 30-40% of that as gross profit through third-party seller fees, retail margins, and fulfillment charges.
Conservative Estimate:
- 1.25 million new Prime members driven by TNF
- $1 billion in new annual spending
- 35% gross margin = $350 million annual profit
- Still a net loss of $300-400M on TNF alone
But Amazon’s thinking goes beyond simple acquisition math. They want members who stay, shop frequently, and become embedded in the Amazon ecosystem.
Prime Retention Creates Long-Term Value
Live sports provide unique retention value that other content cannot match.
NFL Season Creates Habitual Engagement:
- NFL season spans 4+ months (September through January/February)
- Weekly Thursday night viewing creates engagement patterns
- Difficult to cancel mid-season after committing to watch your team
- Spillover to other Prime Video content consumption
Internal Amazon data shows that members who watch live sports on Prime Video have significantly higher retention rates than those who don’t. The exact figures aren’t public, but reducing Prime churn by even 2-3% saves hundreds of millions in re-acquisition costs.
A Prime member who stays for 5 years instead of 2 years generates $2,400 in additional spending ($800/year Ă— 3 extra years). If Thursday Night Football improves retention for just 500,000 members by 3 years, that’s $1.2 billion in additional lifetime value.
Advertising Platform Validation
Thursday Night Football’s true value to Amazon isn’t the $250-350 million in direct TNF ad revenue. It’s proving that Prime Video can deliver premium advertising inventory at scale.
Amazon used TNF to develop and test audience-based creative targeting technology, interactive shoppable ads, real-time commerce integration, and cross-platform measurement tools. These innovations now power Prime Video’s broader advertising business, which launched mandatory ads for all Prime members in January 2024 (with ad-free tier at $2.99/month extra charge).
Prime Video Advertising Projection:
- 2025 estimated revenue: $806 million (according to industry forecasts)
- 2026 estimated revenue: $1.2-1.5 billion
- NFL-driven technology and credibility: Priceless
Without Thursday Night Football proving Prime Video could handle live advertising at massive scale, Amazon couldn’t have launched the ad-supported tier that will generate over $1 billion annually by 2026.
AWS Showcase and Cloud Computing Sales
Thursday Night Football serves as a massive showcase for Amazon Web Services (AWS), which generated $28.7 billion in Q4 2024 alone.
Every TNF broadcast demonstrates AWS capabilities:
- Streaming infrastructure handling 13+ million concurrent viewers
- Real-time AI/ML for stats and graphics
- Global content delivery network performance
- Live interactive features at scale
Sports leagues, media companies, and enterprise clients watch Amazon successfully stream NFL games to millions without buffering issues or crashes. That’s AWS marketing money can’t buy.
When Amazon pitches AWS to potential clients, they can point to Thursday Night Football as proof their infrastructure handles the most demanding live streaming workloads. This credibility supports AWS’s $115+ billion annual cloud business.
The Hidden Costs Nobody Talks About
Beyond the $1 Billion Rights Fee
The $1 billion annual rights fee is just the starting point. Amazon’s true Thursday Night Football expenses include massive production and infrastructure costs.
Production and Talent Costs:
- Al Michaels (play-by-play): $11-13 million annually (estimated)
- Kirk Herbstreit (color commentary): $10-12 million annually
- Additional on-air talent, crew, producers: $50-80 million
- Remote production facilities, equipment, trucks: $40-60 million
Technology and Infrastructure:
- NFL-grade production equipment and systems: $30-50 million
- AWS streaming infrastructure costs: $20-40 million
- Interactive feature development: $10-20 million
Marketing and Promotion:
- TNF advertising and awareness campaigns: $50-100 million
- Talent appearances, promotional events: $10-20 million
Total Annual Non-Rights Costs: $220-380 million
Adding this to the $1 billion rights fee means Amazon spends $1.22-1.38 billion annually on Thursday Night Football before generating a single dollar of revenue.
Against estimated advertising revenue of $250-350 million, Amazon loses $870 million to $1.13 billion annually on direct Thursday Night Football operations.
What the Future Holds (2025-2033)
Path to Breakeven by 2027
Amazon has 8 years remaining on its 11-year deal, and the trajectory suggests direct profitability may eventually arrive.
If current trends continue, Amazon could reach breakeven on Thursday Night Football by 2026-2027:
Optimistic Scenario:
- Viewership reaches: 15-16 million average (+14-21% from 2024)
- Ad revenue grows to: $500-600 million annually
- Production efficiencies reduce costs to: $200-250 million
- Prime member acquisition value compounds over time
Potential 2027 Financials:
- Rights cost: $1 billion
- Advertising revenue: $550 million
- Production costs: $225 million
- Prime acquisition value: $350 million
- Result: Approaching breakeven or slight profit
Even if direct profitability never arrives, the Prime membership and AWS benefits justify the investment.
NBA Rights: Doubling Down on Sports
Amazon isn’t retreating from sports despite current losses. In 2024, the company secured NBA broadcast rights beginning in the 2025-26 season as part of the NBA’s new $76 billion media deal.
Amazon NBA Package (2025-2036):
- Annual cost: $1.8-2 billion
- Games: 66 regular season + playoff coverage
- Format: Similar TNF strategy (streaming exclusive + local broadcast)
If NBA delivers similar demographics and engagement as TNF, Amazon will spend approximately $3 billion annually on sports rights by 2026 while still losing money on the direct content.
The bet remains identical: Sports viewers convert to Prime members, Prime members shop more, and Amazon wins on the backend through commerce and ecosystem engagement.
Competition From Tech Giants
Amazon faces growing competition from tech companies entering sports:
Google (YouTube TV):
- NFL Sunday Ticket: $2 billion annually through 2029
- Year 1 (2023): ~1.3 million subscribers, $442M revenue, $1.558B loss
- But gained: 1.5M new YouTube TV subscribers = $1.314B recurring revenue
Apple:
- MLS Season Pass: Restructured to be free with Apple TV+ (was standalone)
- MLB Friday Night Baseball: Ending early
- Exploring: NFL and NBA opportunities
Netflix:
- Christmas Day NFL doubleheader: 2024 debut
- WWE Raw exclusive deal: Starting 2025
- Testing sports as retention tool
The model is identical across all tech platforms: Lose money on sports rights, make it back through subscriptions, advertising, and ecosystem engagement.
The Bottom Line: Losses Don’t Matter at Amazon’s Scale
Amazon is currently losing $650-750 million per year on Thursday Night Football after accounting for all costs and revenues. Over the first three years (2022-2024), cumulative losses likely exceed $2.3 billion.
But here’s why Amazon doesn’t care about direct profitability:
- Scale Makes Losses Trivial: Amazon generated $187.8 billion in Q4 2024 revenue alone. A $750 million annual NFL loss is 0.4% of quarterly revenue, essentially a rounding error in Amazon’s financial statements.
- Prime Member Value Compounds: Every member acquired via TNF generates $800+ in annual additional spending. Over a 5-year membership, that’s $4,000+ per member. If Thursday Night Football acquires 1.25 million Prime members annually who stay for 5 years, that’s $5 billion in additional customer lifetime value.
- Advertising Technology Validation: TNF innovations like audience-based creative targeting and interactive shoppable ads power Prime Video’s broader $800 million+ advertising business launching in 2024-2025. Without TNF proving the technology works at scale, Amazon couldn’t launch the ad-supported tier generating over $1 billion annually by 2026.
- AWS Showcase Value: Successfully streaming NFL to 13+ million viewers proves AWS capabilities to potential enterprise clients, supporting AWS’s $115+ billion annual cloud business. The credibility gained from flawless Thursday Night Football delivery is worth far more than $750 million in marketing spend.
- Market Share in Attention: Thursday Night Football gives Amazon 17 prime-time slots to own consumer attention, competing directly with broadcast TV during the most valuable advertising windows of the week.
Traditional broadcasters like Fox measure success in advertising revenue versus rights costs. Amazon measures success in Prime members acquired, average order value increases, and engagement with the broader Amazon ecosystem.
Fox lost $400 million annually on Thursday Night Football and walked away. Amazon is losing even more and doubling down with NBA rights, NASCAR, WNBA, and more sports investments.
The difference is Fox is a broadcaster that needs to profit from TV ads. Amazon is a trillion-dollar commerce, cloud, and advertising platform that happens to stream sports.
For Amazon, Thursday Night Football isn’t meant to make money directly. It’s customer acquisition dressed up as entertainment. And on that metric, spending $11 billion over 11 years to convert millions of high-value Prime members might be the smartest money Amazon ever spent, even if it never shows a profit on paper.
