In March 2021, Amazon made the biggest bet in streaming sports history: $1 billion per year for 11 years to become the exclusive home of NFL Thursday Night Football. That’s $11 billion total, making Amazon the first streaming service to exclusively carry a full package of NFL games.
Three seasons in, the numbers tell a complicated story. In 2024, Thursday Night Football averaged 13.2 million viewers on Prime Video, up 11% from 2023 and 38% from Amazon’s inaugural 2022 season. The company’s Q4 2024 advertising revenue hit a record $17.29 billion, boosted in part by NFL sponsorships.
But here’s the catch: Thursday Night Football still loses money. Every single game. And Amazon knows it.
The difference? Amazon doesn’t care about profit from football. They care about what football does for everything else.
The $11 Billion Deal Breakdown
Contract Terms (2023-2033):
- Annual cost: $1 billion
- Total value: $11 billion over 11 years
- Games per season: 15 regular season + 1 preseason + 1 Wild Card playoff (starting 2024)
- Cost per regular season game: ~$67 million
- Start date: September 2022 (accelerated from original 2023 start)
Amazon’s deal makes them the cheapest NFL rights holder on an annual basis but the most expensive per game:
NFL Rights Comparison (Annual Costs):
- ESPN/ABC: $2.7 billion (23 games including Monday Night Football and Super Bowl rotation)
- CBS (ViacomCBS): $2.1 billion (Sunday AFC games + Super Bowl rotation)
- NBC: $2 billion (Sunday Night Football + Super Bowl rotation)
- Fox: $2+ billion (Sunday NFC games + Super Bowl rotation)
- Amazon: $1 billion (15 Thursday Night games + Wild Card)
While Amazon pays half what ESPN does annually, ESPN gets 23 games including Monday Night Football’s premium matchups and two Super Bowl broadcasts per cycle. Amazon gets Thursday nights, historically the NFL’s weakest timeslot featuring teams on short rest.
Fox gladly gave up Thursday Night Football when their contract expired, saving $660 million annually. Morgan Stanley estimated Fox was losing approximately $400 million per year on the package by 2023.
Year 1: The Reality Check (2022 Season)
Amazon’s inaugural exclusive season revealed the harsh economics of Thursday Night Football.
Viewership Miss
- Projected viewership: 12-13 million per game
- Actual viewership: 9.58 million average (Nielsen Live+SD)
- Shortfall: 25% below expectations
The 25% viewership miss created immediate problems for Amazon’s advertising commitments. According to Business Insider reporting in January 2023, Amazon had to provide replacement ad inventory across Prime Video and Amazon.com to compensate advertisers for the lower-than-guaranteed audience delivery.
Advertising Economics
2022 Ad Pricing:
- In-game 30-second spots: $475,000-$525,000
- Fox’s final year (2021): $650,000 per 30-second spot
- ESPN Monday Night Football comparison: $900,000+ per spot
Amazon undercut Fox’s pricing by 25-30%, yet still struggled to meet viewership guarantees. With approximately 10 national 30-second spots available per game across 15 games, Amazon’s maximum in-game ad revenue was roughly $71-79 million for the season.
Season 1 Financial Snapshot:
- Rights cost: $1 billion
- Est. advertising revenue: $70-100 million (in-game + pre/post-game)
- Production costs: $200-300 million (talent, crew, technology, NFL production standards)
- Est. Year 1 loss: $800 million-$1 billion
Year 2: Growth But Still Bleeding (2023 Season)
The 2023 season showed significant improvement as audiences discovered where to find Thursday Night Football.
Viewership Surge
- Average viewership: 11.86 million (+24% vs 2022)
- Peak performance: Seattle vs Dallas (Nov 30) – 15.3 million viewers, 18 million peak
- New streaming record: Most-watched regular season NFL game ever streamed
Key Demographics:
- Median viewer age: 47 years (7 years younger than linear NFL)
- Female viewership: 3.86 million (+30% year-over-year)
- Cord-cutters: 4.1 million per game (+55% vs 2022)
- P18-34 audience: +14% year-over-year
Black Friday Football
Amazon created a new tentpole event by broadcasting an exclusive Black Friday game for the first time. The Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets matchup capitalized on America’s biggest shopping day, integrating commerce with content in ways traditional broadcasters couldn’t match.
Advertising Progress
More than 50% of 2023 TNF advertisers were net-new versus 2022, including approximately 20% who had never advertised on NFL broadcasts before. Amazon successfully sold to non-traditional NFL categories while maintaining strong interest from financial services, automotive, insurance, and restaurants.
Estimated 2023 Financials:
- Rights cost: $1 billion
- Est. advertising revenue: $150-200 million
- Production costs: $200-300 million
- Est. Year 2 loss: $700-850 million
Year 3: Record Breaking But Still Unprofitable (2024 Season)
The 2024 season represented Amazon’s most successful year yet, proving the platform’s potential while still failing to turn a profit directly from football.
Historic Viewership
- Average viewership: 13.2 million (+11% vs 2023, +38% vs 2022)
- Total unique viewers: 103.1 million across TNF, Black Friday, and Wild Card playoff
- Wild Card game: Pittsburgh vs Baltimore – 22.1 million average (24.7 million peak)
The Wild Card playoff game became the most-streamed game in Prime Video history, demonstrating that Amazon’s investment is building sustainable audience habits.
Demographic Records:
All-time highs in TNF’s 19-year history:
- P18-34: Best-ever performance across all TNF carriers since 2006
- P18-49: 5.99 million viewers (all-time high)
- P25-54: Record performance
- Median viewer age: 49 years (8 years younger than NFL TV audience of 55.3)
45% of Prime Video’s Thursday Night Football viewers were in the P18-49 demographic, compared to only 34% of linear NFL viewers.
Advertising Maturation
Amazon introduced groundbreaking advertising innovations in 2024:
Audience-Based Creative Targeting:
For the first time in NFL history, advertisers could show different 30-second ads to different viewer segments within the same ad slot. An automotive brand could simultaneously run:
- Sports car ad to P18-34 males
- SUV ad to families with children
- Truck ad to rural/outdoor demographics
Interactive Advertising:
Viewers could click on ads to learn more about products, add items to Amazon cart, or access exclusive deals without leaving the broadcast.
Pricing Growth:
While exact 2024 pricing wasn’t publicly disclosed, industry analysts estimate Amazon achieved:
- In-game 30-second spots: $525,000-$600,000
- Pre/post-game spots: $200,000-$300,000
- Total estimated ad revenue: $250-350 million for season
Estimated 2024 Financials:
- Rights cost: $1 billion
- Est. advertising revenue: $250-350 million
- Production costs: $250-300 million
- Est. Year 3 loss: $650-750 million
Q4 2024: The Bigger Picture
Amazon announced Q4 2024 financial results in February 2025, providing context for how Thursday Night Football fits into the broader business.
Q4 2024 Performance:
- Total advertising revenue: $17.29 billion (+18% year-over-year)
- Total net sales: $187.8 billion (+10%)
- Net income: $20.0 billion
- Subscription services revenue: $11.51 billion (+10%)
Thursday Night Football contributed to these numbers but represents a tiny fraction of Amazon’s massive advertising and subscription ecosystem. The company’s Q4 ad revenue alone ($17.29B) exceeds its entire 11-year NFL commitment ($11B).
Critically, Amazon noted that TNF viewership growth of 11% made Prime Video “the only NFL broadcast partner to grow year-over-year” in 2024. CBS, Fox, NBC, and ESPN all saw viewership declines.
Why Amazon Accepts the Loss
Here’s the math that makes Thursday Night Football worthwhile despite losing $650+ million annually.
Prime Membership Acquisition
Average annual spending:
- Prime member: $1,400
- Non-Prime member: $600
- Spending difference: $800 per year
If Thursday Night Football converts just 1.25 million people to Prime annually, that generates $1 billion in additional annual spending ($800 Ă— 1.25M). Amazon captures 30-40% of that as gross profit through third-party seller fees, retail margins, and fulfillment charges.
Conservative estimate:
- 1.25M new Prime members driven by TNF
- $1B in new annual spending
- 35% gross margin = $350 million annual profit
- Still a net loss of $300-400M on TNF alone
But Amazon’s thinking goes beyond simple acquisition math.
Prime Retention and Engagement
Amazon doesn’t just want one-time Prime signups. They want members who stay, shop frequently, and become embedded in the Amazon ecosystem.
Live sports provide unique retention value:
- NFL season spans 4+ months (September through January/February)
- Weekly habitual viewing creates engagement patterns
- Difficult to cancel mid-season after committing to watch your team
Internal Amazon data shows that members who watch live sports on Prime Video have significantly higher retention rates than those who don’t. The exact figures aren’t public, but reducing Prime churn by even 2-3% saves hundreds of millions in re-acquisition costs.
Advertising Platform Validation
Thursday Night Football’s true value to Amazon isn’t the $250-350M in direct TNF ad revenue. It’s proving that Prime Video can deliver premium advertising inventory at scale.
Amazon used TNF to develop and test:
- Audience-based creative targeting technology
- Interactive shoppable ads
- Real-time commerce integration
- Cross-platform measurement tools
These innovations now power Prime Video’s broader advertising business, which launched mandatory ads for all Prime members in January 2024 (with ad-free tier at $2.99/month extra charge).
Prime Video Advertising Projection:
- 2025 estimated revenue: $806 million (according to industry forecasts)
- 2026 estimated revenue: $1.2-1.5 billion
- NFL-driven technology and credibility: Priceless
AWS and Cloud Computing Angle
Thursday Night Football serves as a massive showcase for Amazon Web Services (AWS), which generated $28.7 billion in Q4 2024 alone.
Every TNF broadcast demonstrates:
- Streaming infrastructure handling 13+ million concurrent viewers
- Real-time AI/ML for stats and graphics
- Global content delivery network performance
- Live interactive features at scale
Sports leagues, media companies, and enterprise clients watch Amazon successfully stream NFL games to millions without buffering issues or crashes. That’s AWS marketing money can’t buy.
The Hidden Costs Nobody Talks About
Beyond the $1 billion annual rights fee, Amazon’s true Thursday Night Football expenses include:
Production and Talent:
- Al Michaels (play-by-play): $11-13 million annually (estimated)
- Kirk Herbstreit (color commentary): $10-12 million annually
- Additional on-air talent, crew, producers: $50-80 million
- Remote production facilities, equipment, trucks: $40-60 million
Technology and Infrastructure:
- NFL-grade production equipment and systems: $30-50 million
- AWS streaming infrastructure costs: $20-40 million
- Interactive feature development: $10-20 million
Marketing and Promotion:
- TNF advertising and awareness campaigns: $50-100 million
- Talent appearances, promotional events: $10-20 million
Total annual non-rights costs: $220-380 million
Adding this to the $1 billion rights fee means Amazon spends $1.22-1.38 billion annually on Thursday Night Football before generating a single dollar of revenue.
What the Future Holds (2025-2033)
Amazon has 8 years remaining on its 11-year deal, and the trajectory suggests profitability may eventually arrive.
Path to Breakeven
Optimistic Scenario (2026-2027):
If trends continue:
- Viewership reaches 15-16 million average (+14-21% from 2024)
- Ad revenue grows to $500-600 million annually
- Production efficiencies reduce costs to $200-250 million
- Prime member acquisition value compounds over time
Potential 2027 Financials:
- Rights cost: $1 billion
- Advertising revenue: $550 million
- Production costs: $225 million
- Prime acquisition value: $350 million
- Approaching breakeven or slight profit
NBA Rights: Doubling Down
Amazon isn’t retreating from sports. In 2024, the company secured NBA broadcast rights beginning in the 2025-26 season as part of the NBA’s new $76 billion media deal.
Amazon NBA Package (2025-2036):
- Annual cost: $1.8-2 billion
- Games: 66 regular season + playoff coverage
- Format: Similar TNF strategy (streaming exclusive + local broadcast)
If NBA delivers similar demographics and engagement as TNF, Amazon will spend ~$3 billion annually on sports rights by 2026 while still losing money on the direct content.
The bet: Sports viewers convert to Prime members, Prime members shop more, and Amazon wins on the backend.
Competition Heats Up
Amazon faces growing competition from tech companies entering sports:
Google (YouTube TV):
- NFL Sunday Ticket: $2 billion annually through 2029
- Year 1 (2023): ~1.3 million subscribers, $442M revenue, $1.558B loss
- But gained 1.5M new YouTube TV subscribers = $1.314B recurring revenue
Apple:
- MLS Season Pass restructured to be free with Apple TV+ (was standalone)
- MLB Friday Night Baseball (ending early)
- Exploring NFL and NBA opportunities
Netflix:
- Christmas Day NFL doubleheader (2024 debut)
- WWE Raw exclusive deal (2025)
- Testing sports as retention tool
The model is identical: Lose money on sports rights, make it back through subscriptions, advertising, and ecosystem engagement.
The Bottom Line
Amazon is currently losing $650-750 million per year on Thursday Night Football after accounting for all costs and revenues. Over the first three years (2022-2024), cumulative losses likely exceed $2.3 billion.
But here’s why Amazon doesn’t care:
- Scale Makes Losses Trivial: Amazon generated $187.8 billion in Q4 2024 revenue alone. A $750M annual NFL loss is 0.4% of quarterly revenue.
- Prime Member Value Compounds: Every member acquired via TNF generates $800+ in annual additional spending. Over a 5-year membership, that’s $4,000+ per member.
- Advertising Technology Validation: TNF innovations power Prime Video’s broader $800M+ ad business launching in 2024-2025.
- AWS Showcase Value: Successfully streaming NFL to 13+ million proves AWS capabilities, supporting $115+ billion annual cloud business.
- Market Share in Attention: Thursday Night Football gives Amazon 17 prime-time slots to own consumer attention, competing directly with broadcast TV.
Traditional broadcasters measure success in ad revenue vs rights costs. Amazon measures success in Prime members acquired, average order value increases, and engagement with the broader Amazon ecosystem.
Fox lost $400 million annually on Thursday Night Football and walked away. Amazon is losing even more and doubling down with NBA rights, NASCAR, WNBA, and more.
The difference? Fox is a broadcaster. Amazon is a trillion-dollar commerce, cloud, and advertising platform that happens to stream sports.
For Amazon, Thursday Night Football isn’t meant to make money. It’s customer acquisition dressed up as entertainment. And on that metric, spending $11 billion over 11 years to convert millions of high-value Prime members might be the smartest money Amazon ever spent.
Even if it never shows a profit on paper.
