On May 20, 2010, Nike released a three-minute commercial that would immediately be hailed as the greatest football advertisement ever created. Directed by Oscar-nominated filmmaker Alejandro González Iñárritu, featuring Cristiano Ronaldo, Wayne Rooney, Didier Drogba, and a dozen other global superstars, set to the driving prog-rock anthem “Hocus Pocus” by Focus, “Write the Future” was supposed to be Nike’s crowning achievement.
Within the first week, the ad generated 7.8 million views, breaking all previous viral records. Nike’s Facebook fans increased 336% during the tournament, from 1.1 million to 4.8 million. The spot was viewed online more than 50 million times total. Nike became the most shared brand online in 2010. And most importantly, Nike achieved its stated goal: overtaking Adidas to become the world’s number one in football sales.
Campaign Results:
- Launch: May 20, 2010 (three weeks before World Cup)
- First week: 7.8M views (broke all previous viral records)
- Total views: 50M+ across all platforms
- Facebook fans: 336% increase (1.1M → 4.8M)
- Result: Nike became world’s #1 football brand (beat Adidas)
- The curse: Every featured star flopped spectacularly at World Cup
But then something strange happened. Every single star featured in the commercial proceeded to have a disastrous World Cup. Ronaldo scored once against North Korea. Rooney flopped spectacularly as England crashed out. Drogba barely played due to injury. Ronaldinho had already been dropped from Brazil’s squad before the tournament even started.
This is the story of how Nike created the most expensive, most creative, most technically brilliant football advertisement ever made. And how it all fell apart on the pitch.
The $1.7 Billion Ambush
Beat Adidas Without Sponsoring the Tournament
Nike wasn’t an official sponsor of the 2010 World Cup. Adidas paid hundreds of millions for that privilege. But Nike had something else: a strategy called ambush marketing that had been perfected over multiple World Cups. The goal wasn’t to sponsor the tournament. It was to own the cultural conversation around it.
By 2010, Nike’s soccer division had grown from $40 million in annual revenue when the World Cup first came to American soil in 1994 to $1.7 billion. Together with subsidiary label Umbro, which Nike bought in 2007 for roughly $580 million, Nike had become the number one soccer brand on the planet, overtaking Adidas at their own game.
The Challenge:
- Nike wasn’t official 2010 World Cup sponsor (Adidas paid hundreds of millions)
- Nike soccer revenue: $40M (1994) → $1.7B (2010)
- 2007: Bought Umbro for $580M
- Strategy: Own cultural conversation without sponsoring tournament
- Adidas supplied official match ball, kitted out teams
- Nike’s approach: Sponsor players people actually cared about
Adidas had spent hundreds of millions to be the official FIFA World Cup sponsor. They supplied the official match ball. They kitted out multiple national teams. Their logo would be everywhere, on every broadcast, in every stadium. Nike’s strategy was different. Instead of sponsoring the tournament infrastructure, they’d sponsored the players people actually cared about.
Cristiano Ronaldo. Wayne Rooney. Didier Drogba. Franck Ribéry. All Nike athletes wearing Nike boots on the biggest stage in sports. But Nike needed more than just players wearing their boots. They needed a campaign that would capture global attention and make Nike the brand everyone associated with World Cup excitement despite Adidas owning official sponsorship rights.
Building the Most Expensive Football Ad Ever Made
The Creative Concept That Started Everything
Wieden+Kennedy, Nike’s genius advertising agency based in Oregon, spent a year developing the concept. The premise was brilliantly simple: in football, everything hinges on single moments. One pass. One tackle. One goal. And those moments don’t just decide matches. They create ripple effects that reshape players’ entire futures.
This wasn’t Nike’s first rodeo with World Cup advertising. Previous campaigns like “Good vs Evil” in 1998 and “The Secret Tournament” in 2002 had established Nike’s reputation for cinematic football advertising. But “Write the Future” would be different. Bigger. More ambitious. More expensive.
Creative Development:
- Wieden+Kennedy spent one year developing concept
- Led by Mark Bernath, Eric Quennoy, Stuart Harkness, Freddie Powell
- Premise: Single moments create ripple effects reshaping players’ futures
- Each storyline authentic to player’s personality and national context
- Wayne Rooney: English anxieties about tournament failure
- Didier Drogba: Ivory Coast’s aspirations
- Cristiano Ronaldo: Vanity played for humor and pathos
The creative team at Wieden+Kennedy London understood something fundamental about World Cup psychology: the stakes feel existential. For players, one moment can define careers. For fans, one match can reshape national identity. They wanted to visualize those ripple effects, show not just the goal or the miss, but everything that follows.
The Director Who Made It Cinema
Nike approached Alejandro González Iñárritu, the Mexican filmmaker who had directed “Amores Perros,” “21 Grams,” and “Babel.” Films known for their intricate, multi-threaded narratives jumping between storylines and characters. Iñárritu wasn’t an obvious choice for a sports commercial. Most brands would have hired a commercial director with proven experience.
But Wieden+Kennedy creative directors knew exactly what they wanted. They needed someone who could make the fictional futures feel palpably real, not like ridiculous fanciful conceits. Iñárritu’s visual style, his ability to create emotional weight in compressed time, made him perfect.
Production Excellence:
- Director: Alejandro González Iñárritu (Oscar-nominated for “Babel”)
- Cinematographer: Emmanuel Lubezki (later won 3 Oscars: “Gravity,” “Birdman,” “Revenant”)
- Production time: Three months filming across multiple countries
- Locations: England, Spain, Italy, Kenya (visual authenticity)
- Visual effects: The Mill handled seamless CGI crowds, digital doubles
- Budget: Estimated $10-25M total (production and media spend)
- Potentially one of most expensive advertisements ever created
Cinematographer Emmanuel Lubezki, who would later win three consecutive Oscars, shot the commercial. His signature style of fluid camera movement and natural lighting gave “Write the Future” a cinematic quality that separated it from typical advertising. The Mill handled visual effects, seamlessly blending CGI crowds and practical footage.
The Three Minutes That Changed Advertising
The Storylines That Defined It
The ad opens with Cristiano Ronaldo receiving the ball in what appears to be a World Cup match. As he prepares to strike, time slows. We see visions of his potential futures flash before him. Score, and he becomes immortalized in gold statues, dates supermodels, appears in movies. Miss, and he’s reduced to sitting on park benches alone, forgotten.
Wayne Rooney’s nightmare: He makes a pass that gets intercepted by Franck RibĂ©ry. Riots break out in British streets. The stock market plunges. Young fans tear down his posters. A tabloid headline reads “ENGLAND IN ROO-INS!” He ends up overweight, bearded, working as a groundsman at a small club.
Key Storylines:
- Cristiano Ronaldo: Score = gold statues, supermodels, movies. Miss = park benches, forgotten
- Wayne Rooney: Intercepted pass = riots, stock market plunge, “ENGLAND IN ROO-INS!”
- Didier Drogba: Scores = national hero, buildings named after him, children celebrating
- Fabio Cannavaro: Crucial tackle = Italian tenor sings, carried through streets
- Dramatic, humorous, emotionally resonant hyperreality
Didier Drogba’s triumph: He pulls down defenders, scores, and becomes a national hero lifting his entire nation to prosperity. Buildings named after him. Statues erected. Children celebrating in the streets. Fabio Cannavaro’s redemption: The aging defender makes a crucial tackle. An Italian tenor sings as the nation celebrates.
The Soundtrack That Made It Iconic
The music choice was perfect. “Hocus Pocus” by Focus, a 1971 Dutch progressive rock track featuring yodeling, driving guitar riffs, and manic energy that builds and builds. It’s insane. Brilliant. Totally unexpected for a football commercial.
Creative director Freddie Powell discovered the song 20 years earlier while skydiving over the Mexican border. A friend chose it for the video of their jump. Powell never forgot it. When “Write the Future” needed a soundtrack, he remembered that insane track from two decades ago. It became the commercial’s signature.
The Cast:
- Cristiano Ronaldo, Wayne Rooney, Didier Drogba, Ronaldinho
- Fabio Cannavaro, Franck Ribéry, Andrés Iniesta, Cesc Fà bregas
- Theo Walcott, Patrice Evra, Gerard Piqué, Landon Donovan
- Tim Howard, Thiago Silva
- Cameos: Roger Federer, Kobe Bryant, Homer Simpson
- Every major market had representation
The Launch That Broke Viral Records
The Digital-First Strategy
Nike premiered “Write the Future” on May 20, 2010, strategically timing it two days before the Champions League final broadcast and three weeks before the World Cup kicked off. The rollout was meticulously planned. Nike gave exclusive early access through Nike Facebook and nikefootball.com, then launched global partnerships with Facebook, YouTube, and QQ.com on May 22.
The digital-first approach was revolutionary for 2010. Most major advertisers still prioritized television. Nike understood that the conversation had moved online. They wanted fans sharing the ad, talking about it, embedding it, making it part of the World Cup’s cultural narrative.
Distribution Strategy:
- May 20, 2010: Premiered (2 days before Champions League final)
- Exclusive early access: Nike Facebook and nikefootball.com
- May 22: Global partnerships (Facebook, YouTube, QQ.com)
- Broadcast across 32 countries
- Xbox Live takeovers
- Digital-first approach revolutionary for 2010
The Numbers That Validated Everything
Within the first week: 7.8 million views, breaking every previous viral record for a commercial. By tournament’s end: 50+ million views across all platforms. Nike Facebook fans saw 336% increase from 1.1 million to 4.8 million. Nike became the most shared brand online in 2010.
TIME Magazine named it one of the top 10 commercials of 2010. Cannes Lions awarded it the Grand Prix. Ad Age called it an instant classic. Slate’s Seth Stevenson described it as “epic, witty, and wonderful.” Every metric suggested Nike had just executed the greatest ambush marketing campaign in sports history.
Immediate Impact:
- First week: 7.8M views (broke all previous viral records)
- Tournament end: 50M+ views across all platforms
- Facebook fans: 336% increase (1.1M → 4.8M)
- Nike became most shared brand online in 2010
- Cannes Lions: Grand Prix award
- TIME Magazine: Top 10 commercials of 2010
The Curse That Made Headlines
When Reality Refused to Follow the Script
Before the tournament even began, cracks appeared. Ronaldinho, one of the original stars of the commercial, was dropped from Brazil’s squad after poor club form. Nike frantically reshot his segments, unconvincingly substituting Robinho. The expense was significant. The scrambling suggested the campaign might not be as bulletproof as initially thought.
Then the matches started. Cristiano Ronaldo scored once the entire tournament. Portugal crashed out in the Round of 16 to Spain. Wayne Rooney was perhaps the most spectacular failure, dire throughout the tournament. England lost 4-1 to Germany in the Round of 16, one of the most humiliating defeats in English football history.
The Tournament Disasters:
- Ronaldinho: Dropped from Brazil squad before tournament (Nike frantically reshot segments)
- Cristiano Ronaldo: Scored once entire tournament, Portugal out in Round of 16
- Wayne Rooney: Spectacular failure, England lost 4-1 to Germany (humiliating)
- Didier Drogba: Injured before tournament, barely played, Ivory Coast failed to advance
- Fabio Cannavaro: Italy won zero matches, finished last in group (defending champions)
- Franck Ribéry: France imploded with strikes, finished last without winning
Didier Drogba was injured before the tournament and barely played. Ivory Coast failed to advance from the group stage. Fabio Cannavaro saw Italy, the defending champions, fail to win a single match and finish last in their group. Franck RibĂ©ry’s France campaign imploded in spectacular fashion with internal conflicts and player strikes.
The Curse Narrative Takes Hold
The only Nike athletes who performed well were the ones with minor roles. AndrĂ©s Iniesta, Cesc FĂ bregas, Gerard PiquĂ© all won the World Cup with Spain, but they weren’t the stars of Nike’s narrative. Spain was sponsored by Adidas. Media coverage shifted from praising Nike’s marketing genius to questioning whether the commercial was cursed.
Articles appeared with headlines like “Nike’s Write the Future Campaign is Officially Cursed.” Fans on social media joked about the “Nike Curse.” Even Roger Federer, who made a cameo in the ad, suffered a confounding loss at Wimbledon that coincided with the World Cup. The ad that once looked like genius now seemed like hubris.
The Narrative Shift:
- Media coverage: From praising genius to questioning curse
- Articles: “Nike’s Write the Future Campaign is Officially Cursed”
- Social media: Jokes about “Nike Curse”
- Roger Federer: Suffered confounding Wimbledon loss
- Adidas looked prescient: Sponsored Spain (ultimate winners)
- Adidas supplied match ball Iniesta struck for winning goal
Why “Write the Future” Was Both Success and Failure
The Paradox of Metrics Versus Narrative
Here’s the paradox: By every business metric that mattered, “Write the Future” was an extraordinary success. Nike achieved its stated goal of overtaking Adidas to become the world’s number one football brand. Sales increased. Market share grew. Brand awareness exploded. But the campaign’s own narrative worked against it.
By positioning the ad around the idea that individual moments could “write the future,” Nike created expectations that couldn’t be met. When those futures didn’t materialize, the disconnect between the ad’s promise and tournament reality became the story. Nike had succeeded in creating viral content and driving brand engagement, but they’d also learned that when you build a campaign around writing the future, you’d better hope the future cooperates.
Success Metrics:
- Overtook Adidas to become world’s #1 football brand
- Sales increased, market share grew dramatically
- 50M views, 336% Facebook growth, most shared brand 2010
- Cannes Grand Prix, appeared in advertising textbooks
- Film schools studied construction 15 years later
The Failure:
- Campaign narrative created expectations that couldn’t be met
- Disconnect between promise and reality became the story
- Team cohesion matters more than individual brilliance
- Spain won with team-first “tiki-taka” football
- Nike’s celebrity-centric approach misread what makes World Cups compelling
The Lesson in Ambush Marketing
The World Cup proved something Nike hadn’t fully accounted for: team cohesion matters more than individual brilliance at international tournaments. Spain won with a team-first mentality, playing “tiki-taka” football that prioritized collective movement over individual heroics. The tournament’s lesson was that football is ultimately a team sport.
By building their entire campaign around individual players’ potential futures, Nike had fundamentally misread what makes World Cups compelling. Nike’s American advertising approach, which had worked brilliantly for basketball and tennis where individual stars truly do carry teams, didn’t translate as well to international football.
What We Can Learn 15 Years Later
Five Lessons from the Greatest Ad That Became a Curse
“Write the Future” remains studied in marketing programs worldwide, but not always for the reasons Nike intended. The campaign teaches several lessons about brand building, celebrity partnerships, and the limits of advertising brilliance.
First, creative excellence isn’t always enough. The ad was perfect from a craft perspective, but craft can’t overcome contextual failure. When your entire message depends on external events you can’t control, you’re vulnerable. Second, ambush marketing has limits. Nike proved you could beat an official sponsor through superior creative, but they also showed that ambush strategies create narrative vulnerability.
Five Key Lessons:
- Creative excellence isn’t enough: Craft can’t overcome contextual failure
- Ambush marketing has limits: Superior creative beat official sponsor, but created vulnerability
- Team sports require different messaging: Celebrity-centric works for individual sports, not football
- Viral success ≠real-world results: 50M views didn’t mean athletes would win
- Best advertising creates own problems: Brilliance raised expectations, creating complications
Third, team sports require different messaging than individual sports. Nike’s celebrity-centric approach works brilliantly for basketball, tennis, golf. Football is different. Fourth, viral success doesn’t always translate to real-world results. Nike won the internet but winning the internet didn’t mean their athletes would win on the pitch.
Fifth, sometimes the best advertising creates its own problems. Because the ad was so brilliant, so widely seen, the gap between the futures Nike promised and reality became a story in itself.
The Legacy That Outlasted the Curse
What Endured Beyond 2010
Despite the curse narrative and players’ tournament failures, Nike achieved what it set out to do. They overtook Adidas to become the world’s number one football brand. Sales increased dramatically. Brand awareness reached new heights. The campaign demonstrably moved business metrics in Nike’s favor.
And the ad itself has endured. Fifteen years later, “Write the Future” still appears on lists of greatest commercials ever made. It’s studied in film schools and advertising programs. It remains the benchmark against which football advertising is measured. The 2010 World Cup failure taught Nike valuable lessons that influenced future campaigns.
Enduring Legacy:
- Still on greatest commercials lists 15 years later
- Studied in film schools and advertising programs
- Benchmark for football advertising measurement
- Nike learned lessons for future campaigns
- Subsequent ads dialed back individual focus
- Proved advertising can transcend commercial purposes to become art
But they never stopped taking creative risks. The willingness to spend on an Iñárritu-directed three-minute short film, to hire Lubezki as cinematographer, to bet on “Hocus Pocus” as the soundtrack, these decisions reflected a brand confident enough to pursue greatness even when conventional wisdom suggested safer choices.
The Bottom Line
Nike’s “Write the Future” will be studied for decades as both the greatest football advertisement ever created and a masterclass in how brilliant creative can’t always control external reality. It generated 50 million views, increased Nike’s Facebook fans 336%, and helped Nike overtake Adidas to become the world’s number one football brand. It won the Cannes Grand Prix and appeared in advertising textbooks.
Why This Matters:
- Demonstrated ambush marketing can beat official sponsors
- Proved digital-first distribution ahead of its time
- Showed creative excellence elevates brand beyond typical advertising
- Taught that team sports require different messaging than individual sports
- Revealed disconnect between viral success and on-field performance creates complications
But every featured star flopped spectacularly at the 2010 World Cup. Ronaldo scored once. Rooney’s England crashed out 4-1 to Germany. Drogba barely played. Ronaldinho was dropped before the tournament. Italy and France finished last in their groups. The ad that promised to write the future became known as “the curse.”
The paradox reveals something fundamental about modern marketing: you can succeed by every business metric while failing by your own narrative standards. Nike overtook Adidas. Sales grew. Market share expanded. Mission accomplished. Yet the curse narrative persisted because Nike had set expectations they couldn’t control.
Key Takeaways:
- $10-25M budget, most expensive football ad ever made
- Iñárritu direction and Lubezki cinematography elevated to cinema
- 7.8M views first week, 50M+ total, 336% Facebook fan growth
- Overtook Adidas to become world’s #1 football brand
- Every featured star flopped at World Cup creating “curse” narrative
- Proved creative brilliance and business success don’t require on-field validation
“Write the Future” proved that advertising can transcend commercial purposes to become genuine art. It also proved that great art doesn’t always equal marketing success, and marketing success doesn’t always require critical acclaim. The complicated legacy is that it achieved both and neither, succeeding as creative work and business strategy while failing as prophecy.
The future, it turns out, writes itself. Nike just made the greatest commercial ever about that fact, even if they couldn’t quite prove it on the pitch.
